Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.0 | 3.7% | 49 | 0.43% | 72 | 0.63% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 18.7 | 15.2% | 199 | 1.46% | 268 | 1.97% |
| 20-29 | 41 | 29.4 | 24.1% | 315 | 1.51% | 424 | 2.03% |
| 30-39 | 51 | 18.0 | 16.3% | 213 | 1.57% | 323 | 2.37% |
| 40-49 | 31 | 14.1 | 12.1% | 159 | 1.52% | 243 | 2.32% |
| 50-59 | 31 | 13.6 | 11.4% | 149 | 1.19% | 234 | 1.86% |
| 60-69 | 43 | 12.6 | 9.9% | 129 | 1.12% | 175 | 1.52% |
| 70+ | 11 | 8.0 | 7.3% | 96 | 0.92% | 166 | 1.59% |
| All ages | 239 | 118.4 | 100% | 1309 | 1.25% | 1905 | 1.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.0 | 2.6% | 28 | 0.36% | 41 | 0.53% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 8.9 | 7.7% | 83 | 0.99% | 109 | 1.3% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 16.4 | 15.3% | 165 | 2.32% | 232 | 3.26% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 21.0 | 19.5% | 210 | 2.5% | 309 | 3.68% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 20.9 | 19.3% | 208 | 2.68% | 302 | 3.89% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 16.0 | 15.4% | 166 | 1.71% | 248 | 2.56% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 13.9 | 12.4% | 134 | 1.59% | 196 | 2.33% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.3 | 7.7% | 83 | 1.17% | 116 | 1.63% |
| All ages | 73 | 108.3 | 100% | 1077 | 1.67% | 1553 | 2.4% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.7 | 3.6% | 38 | 0.7% | 50 | 0.92% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 8.7 | 8.7% | 92 | 1.69% | 123 | 2.27% |
| 20-29 | 46 | 19.0 | 17% | 179 | 3.96% | 215 | 4.75% |
| 30-39 | 40 | 17.6 | 15.5% | 163 | 3% | 202 | 3.72% |
| 40-49 | 41 | 14.1 | 13.6% | 143 | 2.87% | 187 | 3.76% |
| 50-59 | 42 | 19.1 | 16.6% | 175 | 2.58% | 218 | 3.21% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 15.3 | 13.5% | 142 | 2.24% | 173 | 2.73% |
| 70+ | 28 | 13.9 | 11.7% | 123 | 1.94% | 153 | 2.42% |
| All ages | 244 | 111.4 | 100% | 1055 | 2.33% | 1321 | 2.92% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.3 | 2.6% | 33 | 0.28% | 43 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 13.3 | 11.5% | 144 | 0.87% | 188 | 1.14% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 24.7 | 21.5% | 269 | 1.26% | 354 | 1.66% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 17.7 | 15% | 187 | 1.38% | 243 | 1.79% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 15.0 | 12.3% | 154 | 1.13% | 228 | 1.68% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 19.4 | 16.5% | 206 | 1.45% | 285 | 2.01% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 12.7 | 11.8% | 147 | 1.04% | 194 | 1.37% |
| 70+ | 5 | 10.4 | 8.8% | 110 | 0.85% | 142 | 1.09% |
| All ages | 59 | 116.6 | 100% | 1250 | 1.06% | 1677 | 1.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 21.7 | 5% | 223 | 0.37% | 299 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 59 | 73.6 | 16.7% | 739 | 1.04% | 908 | 1.28% |
| 20-29 | 92 | 113.4 | 25% | 1107 | 1.07% | 1387 | 1.34% |
| 30-39 | 69 | 72.4 | 16% | 706 | 0.92% | 907 | 1.19% |
| 40-49 | 49 | 59.9 | 13.3% | 587 | 0.89% | 773 | 1.18% |
| 50-59 | 39 | 51.6 | 10.8% | 476 | 0.73% | 625 | 0.95% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 31.9 | 6.5% | 288 | 0.53% | 395 | 0.72% |
| 70+ | 18 | 32.3 | 6.8% | 299 | 0.61% | 415 | 0.84% |
| All ages | 372 | 456.7 | 100% | 4425 | 0.81% | 5709 | 1.04% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 257 | 253.6 | 4% | 2477 | 0.39% | 3262 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 699 | 752.3 | 11.7% | 7294 | 0.96% | 9453 | 1.25% |
| 20-29 | 1095 | 1139.6 | 18% | 11227 | 1.48% | 14913 | 1.97% |
| 30-39 | 922 | 984.1 | 15.4% | 9643 | 1.27% | 13055 | 1.72% |
| 40-49 | 836 | 912.9 | 14.4% | 8963 | 1.28% | 12208 | 1.75% |
| 50-59 | 983 | 1004.1 | 15.5% | 9690 | 1.19% | 13045 | 1.6% |
| 60-69 | 699 | 727.4 | 11.2% | 7015 | 0.93% | 9292 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 567 | 648.7 | 9.8% | 6136 | 0.96% | 8278 | 1.29% |
| All ages | 6058 | 6422.7 | 100% | 62445 | 1.07% | 83506 | 1.43% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 197 | 202.6 | 118.4 | 112.1 | 30.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 240.2 | 108.3 | 82.1 | 42.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 292 | 111.4 | 51.7 | 48.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141.8 | 113.6 | 166.3 | 116.6 | 93.4 | 27.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104.4 | 127.8 | 133.5 | 456.7 | 290.6 | 26.9% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 143.4 | 124.9 | 197 | 6422.7 | 4839.4 | 34.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 7.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.46 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2579"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges